Stock markets mostly rose and oil prices fell Friday on optimism that the United States and Iran would reach a deal to extend their ceasefire.

Oil markets have whipsawed this week as investors parse the chances of a breakthrough agreement between Washington and Tehran that could potentially resume normal shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Those hopes had been briefly dashed by new US military strikes on Iran Wednesday night, countered by the Revolutionary Guard’s targeting of an American airbase in the region.

But by Thursday evening, negotiators had edged towards a deal to extend their fragile ceasefire for 60 days, pending approval from President Donald Trump, US sources told AFP.

That news reversed a sluggish start for shares on Wall Street, with major indices closing higher on the day.

A monitor displays the day’s market statistics as traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on April 16, 2026. Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP

In Europe, London, Paris and Frankfurt were all higher in midday trading on Friday.

While the details of the possible agreement are scarce, “oil traders are taking an optimistic view that the end could be in sight for disruption in the region”, said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

International benchmark Brent was down almost two percent.

Wall Street’s advances on Thursday came despite several gloomy indicators, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rising in April to its highest since 2023 and first quarter economic growth being revised lower.

The combination of persistent inflation and slowing growth lowers the chances of interest rate cuts by the Fed, despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates to boost the economy.

Still, “recession risks are easing as oil prices moderate and the probability of worst-case scenarios fades”, wrote Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics.

“While reduced risks from the war have helped, the improvement in equity prices is mostly because of a robust earnings season. The driver is overwhelmingly AI-related capital expenditure,” he said.

Global AI bullishness has driven a historic rally recently, this week pushing the market capitalisations of chipmakers Micron and SK hynix across the $1 trillion threshold.

Seoul’s stock market led the charge in Asia on Friday, surging 3.6 percent while Tokyo’s Nikkei closed at a record high.

Hong Kong also saw healthy gains but Shanghai lost 0.7 percent.

In Europe, observers are awaiting a key gathering of leaders on Friday to discuss ways to address gaping trade deficits with China.

European Union commissioners will hold a debate on what the 27-nation bloc should do to defend the continent’s companies from what Brussels describes as unfair competition from Chinese rivals.

Official data showed Friday morning that France’s economy contracted 0.1 percent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter last year, a downward revision from its previous reading of zero growth.