IMF Cuts Nigeria’s 2020 Growth Forecast To Two Percent

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut down its 2020 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for Nigeria to two percent, from the 2.5 per cent it had predicted earlier.

According to the IMF, the cut reflects the impact of lower international oil prices while inflation in the country is expected to pick up.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that Nigeria’s inflation for the month of January 2020 hit 12.13 percent, recording five months of consecutive rise.

A statement posted on IMF website on Monday said that the review was necessitated after its staff team led by Amine Mati, Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria, visited Lagos and Abuja recently to conduct its annual Article IV Consultation discussions on Nigeria’s economy.

READ ALSO: No Govt Financial Transaction Will Be Done In Secret, Says Buhari

Mr Mati stated that the pace of economic recovery remains slow, as declining real incomes and weak investment continues to weigh on economic activity.

“Inflation—driven by higher food prices—has risen, marking the end of the disinflationary trend seen in 2019. External vulnerabilities are increasing, reflecting a higher current account deficit and declining reserves that remain highly vulnerable to capital flow reversals. The exchange rate has remained stable, helped by steady sales of foreign exchange in various windows.

“Under current policies, the outlook is challenging. The mission’s growth forecast for 2020 was revised down to 2 percent to reflect the impact of lower international oil prices. Inflation is expected to pick up while deteriorating terms of trade and capital outflows will weaken the country’s external position,” the statement read in part.

The IMF lauded the Federal Government for taking a number of steps to boost revenue through the adoption of the Finance Bill and Deep Offshore Basin Act and improve budget execution by adopting the 2020 budget by end-December 2019.

However, it maintained that tightening of monetary policy in January 2020 through higher cash reserve requirements in a response to looming inflationary pressures is welcome.

“Major policy adjustments remain necessary to contain short-term vulnerabilities, build resilience, and unlock growth potential.

“Non-oil revenue mobilization—including through tax policy and administration improvements—remains urgent to ensure financing constraints are contained and the interest payments to revenue ratio sustainable.”

The mission reiterated its advice on ending direct central bank interventions, securitizing overdrafts to introduce longer-term government instruments to mop up excess liquidity and moving towards a uniform and more flexible exchange rate.

“Removing restrictions on access to foreign exchange for the 42 categories of imported goods would be needed to encourage long-term investment,” it stated.

Nigeria’s GDP Grows By 2.28% In Third Quater Of 2019

PHOTO CREDIT: National Bureau of Statistics

 

Data made available by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.28% in the third quarter of 2019.

This is 0.17% percentage points higher than the 2.12% revised GDP growth recorded in the second quarter.

The GDP report which was released on Friday shows that the average daily oil production in the quarter was 2.04 million barrels per day (mbpd).

READ ALSO: Inflation Rate Rises To 11.61% In October

According to the NBS, the growth rate in Q3 of 2019 represents the second-highest quarterly rate recorded since 2016.

The non-oil sector grew by 1.85% during the third quarter. The sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication sector. Other drivers were agriculture, mining and quarrying, transportation and storage, and manufacturing. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 90.23% to the nation’s GDP.

The mining and quarrying sector grew by 5.98% in Q3 2019. Quarrying and other minerals exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 58.03%, followed by coal at 43.68%.

The agricultural sector grew by 14.88% in Q3 2019, showing a decline of –3.44% points from the same quarter of 2018.

The manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2019 was recorded at 39.69%

Nigeria’s GDP Records Slow Growth In 2019 First Quarter

A figure showing Real GDP Growth between 2015-2019 first quarter/ Photo Credit: NBS

 

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown by 2.01% in the first quarter of 2019; this is according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The slow growth is recorded in the first quarter after the oil sector contracted.

Compared to the first quarter of 2018, which recorded real GDP growth rate of 1.89%, the first quarter 2019 growth rate represented an increase of 0.12% points. However, relative to the preceding quarter (fourth quarter of 2018), real GDP growth rate declined by -0.38% points.

In the oil sector, -2.40% growth was recorded in first quarter of 2019. This indicated a decrease by -16.43% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

This shows a growth decreased by -0.79% points when compared to Q4 2018 which was -1.62%.

 

The Mining and Quarrying sector grew by -2.31% in the first quarter of 2019. Compared to the first and last quarters of 2018, this represented a decline of -16.41% points and -1.07% points respectively.

Also, the agricultural sector grew by 3.17% in the first quarter of 2019, an increase of 0.17% points compared to the corresponding quarter of 2018, and 0.72% points compared to the preceding quarter.

Aggregate GDP stood at N31,794,085.85 million in nominal terms. This aggregate was higher than in the first quarter of 2018 which recorded N28,438,604.23 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 11.80%.

The aggregate was, however, lower than in the preceding quarter of N35,230,607.63 million, by -9.75%.

According to the NBS, the 2019 general elections may have affected the economy’s performance.

It is also described the GDP performance as the strongest first-quarter performance observed since 2015.

New GDP Figures By NBS An Indication Of Effective Economic Policies – Presidency

 

The Federal Government has described the latest Gross Domestic Product figures of 2.38 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2018, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as encouraging.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters in the office of the Vice President, Dr. Adeyemi Dipeolu, said it was a clear indication of the effectiveness of the economic policies of the Buhari presidency.

Explaining the growth, Dr. Dipeolu said, “Notably, the growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 (Q4 2018) was higher than both the growth of 1.81% in Q3 2018 and in the corresponding fourth quarter of 2017. Indeed, quarter-on-quarter growth from Q3 2018 to Q4 2018 was 5.31%, which signals a great potential for a higher annual growth rate.

Read Also: Nigeria’s GDP Grows 2.38 Per Cent In Fourth Quarter Of 2018

He attributed the growth in Q4 2018, largely to the performance of the non-oil sector.

“The non-oil sector grew at 2.7% in Q4 2018 as compared to 1.14% in the oil sector. The non-oil sector also grew by 2% in the whole year 2018 which was considerably better than its growth in the whole of 2017, which was 0.47%.

“The share of the non-oil sector in GDP was 92.94% while the oil sector contributed 7.06%,” Dipeolu stated.

He expressed optimism that if this trend was maintained, the economic diversification objectives of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) would well be on their way to being met.

“It was encouraging that agriculture which accounts for 26.15% of total GDP grew by 2.46% in Q4 2018, while manufacturing grew by 2.09%. The service sector which accounts for 53.62% of GDP registered its strongest growth performance in 11 quarters,” he said.

Also notable were transport and storage, as well and information and communication, which grew at 13.91% and 9.65% in the whole of 2018, owing to the investments being made in infrastructure development such as roads and broadband.

According to Dipeolu, the Buhari administration will diligently pursue the ERGP for continued improvement in the nation’s economic conditions.

The NBS on Tuesday released the GDP figures for the last quarter of 2018, indicating what the Federal Government described as showing a marked improvement in the growth performance of the economy.

Nigeria’s GDP Grows 2.38 Per Cent In Fourth Quarter Of 2018

 

Nigeria’s GDP has grown 2.38 per cent in real terms within the fourth quarter of 2018, showing a 0.27 per cent jump over the fourth quarter of 2017.

The Real GDP growth posted 5.31 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with an annual growth rate of 1.93 per cent printed for the fiscal year of 2018.

READ ALSONigeria’s GDP Slowed In Second Quarter Of 2018

While the aggregate nominal GDP was at NGN 35.230bn, a higher 12.65 per cent from NGN 31.275bn recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Nigeria’s nominal GDP for the fiscal year of 2018 was at NGN127.76bn, posting a nominal growth rate of 12.36 per cent above the fiscal year of 2017 level of NGN 113.71bn

FEC Pleased As Budget Minister Reveals 2018 GDP Growth

 

The Federal Executive Council on Wednesday received a report detailing the growth of the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2018.

After the meeting presided over by President Muhammadu Buhari, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Udo Udoma, told journalists that the council was encouraged by the economy’s steady recovery from recession.

He also noted that the economic growth continues to be driven by the non-oil sector which grew by 3.32 per cent in the third quarter.

Read Also: Significant Growth In Non-Oil Sector Is Creating Thousands Of Jobs – Buhari

The nation had entered into a recession in 2016, according to statistics by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Consequently, the cost of basic amenities soared, as the value of the naira depreciated compared to the dollar – a situation which caused hardship for the majority of Nigerians.

With pressure being mounted on government, the need to diversify the economy and focus on the non-oil sector became inevitable.

After various efforts, the nation exited the recession in 2017.

The presidency, however, promised that it won’t rest until the impact of the nation’s new economic status is being felt by all Nigerians.


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Nigeria’s Environment Minister, Ibrahim Jibrin Resigns


 

Meanwhile, the Minister of State for Environment, Ibrahim Jibrin, has resigned from the federal cabinet.

His resignation was announced during the FEC meeting on Wednesday, after which a valedictory session was held in his honour.

No-Deal Brexit Could Cost UK Economy 9.3% Of GDP – Govt

European Union, Ogbonnaya Onu, Science and technology

 

If Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal its economy could end up being 9.3 percent smaller in 15 years’ time than would otherwise be the case, the government said on Wednesday.

A cross-departmental analysis found leaving the EU will leave Britain poorer than it would have been had it remained inside the bloc, even accounting for new trade deals it would eventually be able to sign.

It did not exactly the model for the deal struck by Prime Minister Theresa May with the EU last week, the outlines of which remain vague, but suggests something similar could see the economy shrink by as much as 3.9 percent.

The 83-page report was published a fortnight before British MPs vote on the deal, with many deeply opposed.

The Brexit deal comprises a divorce agreement and a political declaration on future ties, which offers a “spectrum” of options for how Britain will trade with the EU after Brexit, the report said.

Given this range of options, the economic analysis offered two different models on what the final deal could look like and assessed how they could affect the economy when combined with the government’s hopes of ending free moment of EU workers into Britain.

If Britain got the frictionless trade it wants, as outlined in a government plan in July, and there was no change to migration arrangements, the economy would still shrink by 0.6 percent compared to what it would be otherwise.

If Britain did get frictionless trade and net EEA migration fell to zero, the economy would shrink by 2.5 percent.

But many believe Britain will not get everything it wants, and the analysis models a trade arrangement halfway between frictionless trade and a standard free trade agreement.

This compromise model with no change to migration would see the economy shrink by 2.1 percent. With zero net migration, it would shrink by 3.9 percent.

The document makes clear the paper is not an economic forecast for the UK economy, adding that the results “should be interpreted with caution”.

The models also do not take into account changes such as demography or productivity levels, or any changes to EU rules in the future.

They do however assume Britain rolls over the trade deals it currently benefits from as part of the EU and strikes new ones with countries including the United States.

But the impact of these trade deals is negligible — and the increase of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent in GDP compared to today’s arrangements.

AFP

Q2 GDP: Analysts Unhappy With Performance Of Agriculture, Manufacturing Sectors

 

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has left some analysts concerned about some sectors, especially the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

The report for Q2 2018 showed that GDP slowed, growing by 1.50% in the second quarter as against the 1.95% growth in the first quarter of 2018.

Chief Executive Officer Of Cowry Asset Management, Mr Johnson Chukwu, told Channels Television’s on Channels Television programme, Business Morning said although the GDP Q2 report shows positive growth, the key sectors, however, did not perform positively.

“Although the GDP grew positively by 1.95%, the sectors that should propel job creation and economic positive are not in the positive directory,” Chief Executive Officer of Cowry Asset Management, Mr Johnson Chukwu, said on Monday in an interview on Channels Television’s on Business Morning.

“Manufacturing sector compared to the first quarter had a major contraction in terms of growth rate,” he said.

Chukwu explained that although the agriculture sector is growing in Nigeria, it is also doing so at a much slower pace. The economist blamed this on the crisis in north-central Nigeria.

He said, “(The) Agricultural sector grew by only 1.19% in the second quarter. I have also said the impact of the crisis in the Northcentral will reflect on the GDP growth status. The Manufacturing sector accounts for 9.28 in the GDP. So these key sectors are not growing.”

Another analyst, Mr Rotimi Fakayejo said the figures from the report are not unexpected but show hope ahead, but, like Chukwu, he flagged the performance of the agriculture sector.

He also expects investors to be concerned about the performance, noting, however, that not many companies in the sector are listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

“I believe investors may not be able to miss out on the grey points of their investment in terms of what kind of returns they are going to get,” he said.

“So, I believe strongly that with the way it is now, the agricultural sector will draw the ire of investors and that is going to be a major focus.”

The GDP report released on Monday showed that the Agriculture sector – Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing – contributed 18.78% to nominal GDP but the growth in the second quarter was lower than the rate recorded for the second quarter of 2017 (19.28%).

Nigeria’s GDP Grows In First Quarter Of 2018

 

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew year-on-year to 1.95 percent in the first quarter of 2018.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the performance represents a stronger growth compared with the first quarter of 2017, indicating an increase of 2.87 percentage points.

Compared to the preceding quarter, however, the GDP fell 0.16 percent points from 2.11 percent.

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at 28.46 billion naira, higher in performance when compared to the 26.02 billion naira recorded in the first quarter of 2017

The statistics bureau says the GDP number presents a positive year on year nominal growth rate of 9.36 percent.

Lagos Targets Judiciary, Security Reforms To Boost GDP

Ambode, Lagos state, helipad, health,
Lagos State Governor, Akinwunmi

 

 

The Lagos State Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode, has said that reforms in the judiciary and security sector are targeted at boosting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the state.

He added that it will create a sound pedestal for residents to be productive.

Governor Ambode made this known on Monday, during a biannual lecture of the Lagos State Judiciary.

He said the major reforms in the sectors were already contributing to the growth of the economy, assuring that no effort would be spared in ensuring the success of the various initiatives.

The Governor particularly commended the State’s Chief Judge, Justice Opeyemi Oke and the Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Mr. Adeniji Kazeem, saying he was in firm support of the reforms being championed by the duo in the judicial sector.

“I want to say that I am very proud of the judicial sector reforms going on in the State; we are very proud of the work being done by the Chief Judge and the combination of the efforts being carried out by the Attorney General and Chief Judge is something we need to support.

“It is now very obvious that some major reforms are going on in the judicial sector and we are very proud as the executive arm of government to support the judicial sector reforms which we are also complementing with our security sector reforms.

“In totality, the reforms are aimed at improving the economy of Lagos and grow the GDP and what is going on in the judicial sector is significant and we are very proud of it,” the Governor said.

While lauding the initiative of the lecture which was intended to engender thought-provoking discussions and provide a platform for stakeholders to assess the performance of the judiciary and as well broaden the frontiers of justice delivery, Governor Ambode called for the lecture to be held annually.

He said it was important for the intellectual conversation around the lecture to be held regularly in order to bring about practical solutions to issues in the sector.

In opening remarks, Justice Oke lauded Governor Ambode for supporting the reforms being implemented in the State Judiciary, describing him as a man of vision who is known for pursuit of excellence and international best standards in every area of his administration.

She said the lecture, which is the first of its kind not only in Lagos but in other jurisdictions, was designed to facilitate closer interaction between the judiciary and the bar both in terms of practice and continuing legal education.

The CJ, who reeled out some of the reforms being implementing including judicial ethics and administration, old cases above 20 years elimination programme, designation of special offences court, sexual offences court, small claims court, child rights law and regulations, prison decongestion effort, among others, said the lecture was one of the initiatives put together to advance justice delivery in the State.

On his part, Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo represented by Special Assistant to the President on Economic Crimes, Mr. Biodun Aikomo, said in view of the strategic role occupied by judicial officers in the country, it was important for them to always be above board and uphold ethical standards.

“Judges must be beyond reproach; they must be above board; they must abide by ethics and standards of the profession and dispense justice without rightly,” he said.

Speaking on the theme: “Judicial Standards, Integrity, Respect and Public Perception: A Comparative Analysis From Independence In 1960 Into The Present Millennium,” the guest speaker at the lecture and Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Walter Onnoghen admonished judges to refrain from commenting from commenting on matters of public interest through social media blogging sites such as Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, among others.

The CJ said judges must also ensure the removal of their personal information online, and as well desist from uploading pictures of their holiday and personal activities on social media.

He said judges “who are desirous of discussing public matters on the social media can only do so without revealing their identity,” adding that the interactive design of the internet blogging sites made it important for judges not to descend into such arena.

Onnoghen, represented by Mr Olabode Rhodes-Vivour, Justice of the Supreme Court, also called for the study of law in the University to be made a second degree in view of the declining standards of education in Nigeria, while lawyers who wanted to be appointed to the bench, in addition to 10 years post call requirement, should also be mandated to have postgraduate diploma in law.

Such reforms, according to the CJN who traced the trajectory of the Nigerian judiciary since 1960, were important factors that can further help to advance justice delivery.

Nigeria’s GDP Grows By 1.92% In Q4     

 

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown by 1.92 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, maintaining its growth since the economy emerged from recession in the second quarter of 2017.

The full year 2017 however recorded an annual growth rate of 0.83 percent, compared to minus 1.58 percent in 2016.

The aggregate GDP was also higher at 31.209 trillion naira in nominal terms, resulting in a nominal GDP growth of 6.99 percent.

The data shows non-oil GDP grew 1.45 percent in q4 2017, while oil GDP grew 8.38 percent also in the same period.

Nigeria’s Economy Grows By 1.4% In Third Quarter

Nigeria’s economy continued its recovery from recession, rising 1.4 percent in the third quarter of this year on increased oil production, official data showed Monday.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said it was the second quarter of consecutive growth since the country emerged from recession.

“This growth is 3.74 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 (-2.34 percent) and higher by 0.68 percentage points from the rate recorded in the preceding quarter (of 2017),” it said.

The agency said daily oil production rose in the third quarter, averaging 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to 1.87 million bpd in the preceding quarter.

“Real growth of the oil sector was 25.89 percent (year-on-year) in Q3 2017. This represents an increase of 48.92 percent relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016,” it said.

 

Nigeria depends on the sector for 70 percent of government revenues and 90 percent of export earnings.

The country slipped into recession for the first time in more than two decades in August 2016 after a sustained fall in global oil prices and militant attacks in the Niger Delta.

The Federal Government has been trying to reduce the country’s reliance on oil but the NBS said non-oil sector only grew 0.76 percent in the quarter.

“This is lower by -0.79 percentage points compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and -1.20 percentage points lower than in the second quarter of 2017,” it said.

President Muhammadu Buhari early this month presented a record N8.6 trillion ($24 billion, 20.8 billion euros) budget aimed at supporting economic recovery in 2018.

The government is targeting growth of 3.5 percent next year, with an estimated oil output of 2.3 million barrels per day as against a projected 2.2 million bpd in 2017.