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Türkiye’s Central Bank Lifts 2026 Inflation Forecasts

The official inflation rate is now seen falling to between 15 and 21 percent by the end of this year, up from a previous forecast of 13 to 19 percent.

By Aramide Folorunsho
Updated February 12, 2026
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(FILES) A teller uses a machine to count Turkish lira banknotes at a foreign exchange office in Ankara on July 20, 2023. Turkey’s central bank on September 11, 2025, lowered its main interest rate by 2.5 percentage points in a cut that exceeded expectations as inflation continued to ease. The bank had raised its key interest rate to 46 percent in April after protests over the jailing of Istanbul’s powerful opposition mayor, later lowering it by three percentage points in July. (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP)

Türkiye’s central bank on Thursday increased its estimates for inflation as officials try to rein in soaring price increases that have weighed on the economy for years.

The official inflation rate is now seen falling to between 15 and 21 percent by the end of this year, up from a previous forecast of 13 to 19 per cent.

“We have increased our forecast range because of better visibility on certain risks,” the central bank’s governor, Fatih Karahan, said in a statement, without further detail.

READ ALSO: Turkey Inflation Falls To 30.9% From 44% In 12 Months

The forecast would still be a sharp decline from the annual inflation rate of 30.7 percent in January, following years of interest rate hikes in a bid to slow runaway price increases.

However, the official figures are disputed by ENAG, a group of independent economists that publishes its own data every month, with the organisation saying year-on-year inflation stood at 53.4 percent in January.

Turkey has experienced double-digit inflation since 2019, making life increasingly more expensive for millions of people, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered interest rate cuts in a bid to spur growth.

The cuts sent the lira plunging on currency markets, further fueling inflation and leading Erdogan to reverse his unorthodox policy in 2023.

But in January the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 37 percent, citing a continued slowing of price increases.

AFP

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